GEOFF BENNETT: And turning our attention back to Capitol Hill, our Lisa Desjardins joins us now.

So, Lisa, let's start with this expected DHS shutdown.

What's the latest?

LISA DESJARDINS: We are heading toward a shutdown.

It is all but certain now.

While the deadline is tomorrow night, tomorrow night at midnight, East Coast time, Congress has left town.

Senators are gone, and for a 10-day recess now, and some of them even going overseas.

Now, the central issue here remains the same.

It is about ICE reform and funding DHS.

Where we are is that Republicans and Democrats just don't think they're even close enough to compromise on that to stick around.

So they're giving up on that deadline at least for now.

Now, Democrats say Republicans and the White House specifically have not put enough on the table for them to even engage in serious talks right now.

However, Republicans see this differently.

I caught up with majority Leader of the Senate John Thune.

SEN.

JOHN THUNE (R-SD): I have seen significant movement on the part of the administration on some of the key issues.

LISA DESJARDINS: Which are?

SEN.

JOHN THUNE: Well, I'm not going to litigate that publicly.

I think that right now both the White House and Senate Democrats have done a pretty good job of keeping those conversations in a forum where they can have an honest back-and-forth.

Clearly, right now, we're not at a place where there's a deal, but I think a deal is in sight.

LISA DESJARDINS: Of course, I asked Thune, so why are you leaving?

This is a shutdown.

This will really affect thousands of people.

He said he just doesn't think they're close enough.

There's not a deal in sight right now.

But there are other senators who are not going on CODELs, those trips overseas, like Mike Rounds.

He says he's going to stick around.

But right now there's really no reason to think they're going to reach a deal in the next couple of days.

GEOFF BENNETT: So how firm are Democrats in their demands, which is another way of asking, how long will this shutdown last?

LISA DESJARDINS: This is the question that tens of thousands of people, especially those working for DHS, want to know.

I will give you the honest, blunt answer.

No one knows how long this could go, which means it could go long.

We don't know.

Sometimes, a rainbow appears in the Senate.

I will give you two points of view, one for optimists.

I know many of our viewers are optimists.

They could look at this and say, there are real talks going on here.

The White House and Senate Democrats are engaging on some level, which is unique in the past year, let's say.

So there's reason to hope.

Also, they're not negotiating through the press.

We don't really know what the terms are here.

You know as well as I do, the less is said, the more chances there are for a deal.

Now, for the pessimists out there, we have some of those viewers too, I'm told.

The problem here is that there really is a rift over immigration policy that is going to be hard to square.

This is a midterm election year.

The politics here are very sharp.

Both sides have bases defending the outward position here.

It's going to be hard for them to move forward.

But one example, I talked to Gary Peters, senator from Michigan, who you know is often a pragmatist.

This is where we are.

I asked him, how close are we in the offers?

And he just told me point blank: "We still have a long ways to go."

That was a couple hours ago.

So we could be here for a while.

GEOFF BENNETT: And people can be forgiven if they're confused by this, because, if memory serves, DHS got $195 billion in the last Trump spending bill, $75 billion alone just for ICE.

So there are people who I'm sure would ask, what difference does it make if they don't have a funding bill?

They already have all this money to spend.

LISA DESJARDINS: Your memory is 100 percent correct.

They have billions of dollars for ICE and CBP.

They don't have to worry about this.

We have talked about this before this week, what this shutdown would mean.

But, tonight, I want to look at it in a little bit of a different way, the sheer size of this agency.

Let's talk about Homeland Security, since it's the only agency that will be affected.

Now, this is an agency that has 272,000 employees.

That's larger than most towns that our viewers live in.

Of that, roughly 23,000, according to their plan for the last shutdown, would be furloughed, meaning they would stay home.

The rest, that's well over 90 percent, would be on the job.

Now, ICE and CBP, as you're saying, could be paid from this big pot of money they have.

But let's talk about the larger concerns.

There are real concerns about TSA and the Coast Guard.

Those two groups and most of the federal workers involved will be paid.

They just are getting paid this week.

So what that means is perhaps the next incentive point is two weeks away, when they will be missing some pay perhaps.

Congress is gone.

So I think we can sort of read how this could go.

There's hope for a deal maybe while they're gone, but not much.

It's that incentive and TSA that could be the next pressure point.

GEOFF BENNETT: Lisa Desjardins, a busy day for you and our politics team.

Our deep appreciation.

LISA DESJARDINS: You're welcome.